Making a decision and a decision tree Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Making a decision and a decision tree - Essay Example Jaeger is better off harvesting the grapes immediately. In my opinion, Mr. Jaeger should be guided by the decision tree options, because the calculation of options is viable. This means that the options calculated in the decision tree have a chance of occurring. From the decision tree, it can be seen that the expected monetary values for the two options are very different, a margin that Mr. Jaeger cannot afford to dismiss. However, an analysis of the case indicates that the Riesling is not a large part of the winemaker’s business; therefore, Mr. Jaeger would not be ruined if he takes the gamble and losses. This means that the winemaker has the option of taking the gamble to impress wine connoisseurs, since the presentation of a quality wine would raise the reputation of the winery. After an analysis of the two options open to Mr. Jaeger, it can be concluded that the best decision would be to harvest the grapes immediately. This is because the expected pay off from waiting for the storm is not justified by an accompanied increase in